Three months ago I wrote an article titled, “On Funding,” about my lack of confidence that the federal government could sign an appropriations bill by the deadline which was fast approaching. I hope that if I say now as I did then that I don’t have confidence the government can reach a compromise that they will reach a compromise….
To borrow a great phrase, ‘now we are engaged in another battle, testing whether this nation, or any nation so conceived, can long endure. We are met on another battlefield of that war…’ which is a war over what the government will fund; this time, about limits on the national debt due to default August 2nd. I have gotten into the habit of quoting myself, and I apologize, but I must quote part of what I wrote in April, because it applies so well now.
There have been past government shutdowns and with the trend in current political climate it stands to reason there will be others in the future….
This is a conflict between a mindset: one mindset says that politics in a representative democracy should be done for political gain, and if shutting down the government may gain political points, it is the thing to do. The other mindset says that in representative democracy, the government must represent many views, and the government must always maintain the ability to function. The first mindset says politics is a game of 50%+1. The second mindset wants the best society for the most people….
Do wecut the $30,000,000,000 of non-security spending for political gain, default on our debt or should we do it because it represents our interests?
That is the question.
People like Christine Lagarde, head of the International Monetary Fund, say there will be “real nasty consequences” if the US defaults, which makes some funny part of me want to see what would happen. But beyond that funny part of us that wants to see human catastrophe, I don’t really want to see us default on our debt. There’s no financially or rationally sound reason why we should. And what would happen? “The president warned that failure to reach agreement could create another recession and throw millions of Americans out of work, painting a picture of catastrophe if a partisan stalemate is not broken and Congress fails to act. He criticized politicians who say the debt ceiling doesn’t need to be raised.”
A google search informs us that during between 2000 and 2008 the debt increased by more than $4 trillion dollars, and as of September 29, 2008, the debt limit had been raised seven times without comment by the people who now want catastrophe; alternately, the same search says the debt may have been raised five times or nineteen times.
A majority of swing-state voters, those magical states that political scientists pay attention to because of the electoral college, would raise taxes on the rich to begin to fix the deficit. Not so the federal Republicans, to which Obama responded in today’s press conference “‘I don’t see a path to a deal if they don’t budge. Period,'” accusing Republicans of having a ‘my way or the highway’ posture on taxes.” As if to prove his point, “even before Obama was finished speaking, Republicans were disagreeing with his insistence that a deficit-trimming deal include cutbacks in tax breaks for the wealthy and some big corporations. While the news conference was under way, Boehner’s office sent two emails to his news list saying tax hikes never should have been in the discussion.”
In April I wrote about the possible political consequences of American fear of hell.
In current American Christian terms, Christians believe in heaven but much less in hell. This has to do with globalization, on an international level and on a communal level. If you’re Christian and your good neighbor is Hindu/Jewish/Buddhist, you begin to think that person should not be damned for eternity. On a personal level, this means that you don’t believe in hell anymore, so your own actions won’t get you damned for eternity if you do something wrong. What incentive is left to be good if hell isn’t there waiting for you?
In political terms, this has some meaning. Church and state are much less separate than we like to think, for we political animals are surrounded by religion, and both are part of our being. If you don’t believe in hell – I don’t; it has never been part of my religion – why do things well, as opposed to not well? It means you have to have empathy; it means you have to be part of the here-and-now and not only the afterlife. What’s this going to do to American politics? We’ll have to wait and see.
Now there is more research, involving several European nations.
Daniel Treisman, a political scientist at UCLA, has come up with a way to measure how fearful nations are. What Treisman found is that is that if an individual admit to being worried about one threat, they are also highly likely to say they are worried about the others.
Now, the interesting thing is that fear is often not all that closely linked to real danger. There was no relationship between fear of BSE and actual number of cases, and only a weak relationship between fear of medical errors and the number of medical errors, and between terrorism and number of terrorist attacks. Fear of bird flu was actually highest in the countries with the fewest cases!
Fear was influenced by all sorts of weird effects. People are less scared if you quiz them in the evenings – Treisman speculates they may have partaken of a few bevvies already!
To me, this looks like good evidence that putting the fear of god into people actually makes them more fearful of everything else – and that, of course, has a number of interesting political and social ramifications!
An absolutely fascinating article, by Kai Nagata, titled Why I quit my job
Until Thursday, I was CTV’s Quebec City Bureau Chief, based at the National Assembly, mostly covering politics….
It was what I would qualify as a “great job,” especially for a 24-year old. Many of you told me how proud you were of my quick climb. But there was a growing gap between the reporter I played on TV, and the person I really am and want to become….
As a reporter, I feel like I’ve been holding my breath. Every question I asked, every tweet I posted, and even what I said to other journalists and friends had to go through a filter, where my own opinions and values were carefully strained out. Even then I’m not sure I was always successful, but I always knew at the CBC and subsequently at CTV that there were serious consequences for editorial. Within the terms of my employment at CTV, there was a clause in which the corporation (now Bellmedia) literally took ownership of my intellectual property output. If I invented a better mouse trap, they owned the patent. If I wrote a novel, they got a cut. Rhymes on the back of a napkin? Bellmedia is hip to the jive, yo.
…
Meanwhile, the people who are supposed to be holding decision makers to account are instead broadcasting useless tripe, or worse, stories that actively distract from the massive projects we need to be tackling instead of watching TV.
I thought if I paid my dues and worked my way up through the ranks, I could maybe reach a position of enough influence and credibility that I could say what I truly feel. I’ve realized there’s no time to wait.
If storytelling turns out to be my true passion and the best use of my skills, then I’ll continue down that path. If elder care, academia, agriculture, activism, art, education, Budo, or as-yet unforeseen pursuits turn out to make the flame burn brighter, I’ll make the switch, or do them all. I’m willing to work with anyone of any religion or political stripe, if they’re sincere about doing what it takes.
I’m broke, and yet I know I’m rich in love. I’m unemployed and homeless, but I’ve never been more free.
Everything is possible.
I hope you find time to read the whole thing.
If you can’t find a job, you’re not alone. ” Carl E. Van Horn, a professor of public policy at Rutgers University recently looked at what happened to college graduates who finished school between 2006 and 2010. Of these, only half found full-time jobs.” Twenty-five year olds with masters degrees are overqualified for government service, and one works as a nanny. Another college graduate found that ‘success’ had to be redefined to working at Walgreens. According to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics “unemployment rate for college graduates between the ages of 20 to 24-year-olds soared five percentage points in the past month — from 7.1 percent in May to 12.1 percent in June.” Van Horn says that “‘The continued weak recovery will mean more graduates finding themselves in part-time jobs and contingency jobs and jobs that are far below their level of education.'”
According to the Huffington Post,
House Democrats are circulating a resolution accusing House Majority Leader Eric Cantor (R-Va.) of having a conflict of interest in the debt ceiling debate.
The resolution goes after Cantor’s investment in ProShares Trust Ultrashort 20+ Year Treasury EFT, a fund that “takes a short position in long-dated government bonds.”
The fund is essentially a bet against U.S. government bonds. If the debt ceiling is not raised and the United States defaults on its debts, the value of Cantor’s fund would likely increase.
The article continues,
Cantor spokesman Brad Dayspring said Democrats have it backwards: The Majority Leader stands to lose much more money if Congress does not reach a deal on the debt ceiling and the U.S. defaults.
According to Dayspring, Cantor owns $3,327 in the ProShares trust. His congressional pension in the Thrift Savings Plan, on the other hand, is invested in the G Fund of government bonds and is valued at over $263,000. The value of his investment in the ProShares fund is highly variable and could change significantly if the government defaults.
The resolution is unlikely to be ruled valid by the House parliamentarian, but it could certainly create an uncomfortable bit of political theater when it’s read.
Six months ago today, Southern Sudan went to the polls to vote for secession. “A referendum was held on independence, under the 2005 peace deal,” which was favoured by more than 99 per cent of voters, one of the very few times such a high percentage of votes on anything, anywhere, was not rigged.
Today (tomorrow here, but already today there), people are celebrating at midnight as Sudan’s Independence Day happens in real time. As South Sudan becomes the newest state, “the main ceremony is due to include military parades, prayers, raising the newly proclaimed Republic of South Sudan’s flag and Salva Kiir, the country’s first president, signing the transitional constitution.”
Unlike the Flying Spaghetti Monster, which accepts everyone, Israel is having a tough time appreciating diversity. Greece, working with Israel, for reasons which can be guessed at, has delayed the sailing of several hundred people to Gaza. It must be wondered at why Israel would want to help the cause of “activists” Israel considers enemies by publicizing their cause, but often we do not act in our own best interest.
There is no shortage of sources tracking the events. The Christian Science Monitor quotes Menachem Ganz in the Israeli daily newspaper Yediot Ahronot saying, “There seems to be one thing that the [flotilla] organizers failed to take into account: Greece’s attitude towards the flotilla, and the dramatic change that has occurred in Israeli-Greek relations in the past year.” Among other reasons for Greece’s sudden friendship with Israel, “Greece’s economy has been in a mostly downward spiral since the country joined the euro in 2001.” The Christian Science Monitor notes that in return, Israel offered “generous military assistance to the debt-ridden state.” HaAretz has a Flotilla Diary with the most recent updates. Al Jazeera has a Freedom Flotilla II blog. The Right Turn at the Washington Post has conservative commentary about enemies of Israel. MaAn News Agency has several articles, including one detailing that 600 people who intended to be on the flotilla will instead fly in to Israel and travel to Gaza.
In preparation for the arrival of 600 to 800 people flying into Israel, Israel has appears to be “gearing up for a confrontation,” according to the MaAn news article. Additionally, MaAn and HaAretz report that Israel “has instructed foreign airlines to prevent 300 pro-Palestinian activists from boarding flights to Israel over the weekend.” Despite the preparations Israel has taken, Occupied Palestine has an article dated July 6th saying flights are planned for the night of the 7th. So far, plans for the hundreds of participants include
particular exchanges with the Al-Rowwad Centre of the Aïda refugee camp (Bethlehem), help with olive tree planting around Ramallah, also a solidarity visit to the organizers of the Jenin Freedom Theatre whose manager, Juliano Meir Khamis, was brutally assassinated recently.
Israel has already decreased military presence at Ben Gurion Airport, believing (perhaps rightly) that most people whose names were given to airlines were not able to board flights. However, “it only takes about 30 activists to make a scene at the airport for media outlets to widely report on it and thus hand the activists their victory. This event will end with either no problems or as a catastrophe. There will not be a middle-ground,” said a senior official at Ben-Gurion International Airport.
The UN committee investigating the Gaza-bound flotilla of May 2010 released its findings. There is bad news as well as good, and, like all reports, is biased and politically motivated, even if it is fair and acceptable. The naval blockade of Gaza by Israel, which is, in short time, about to be challenged again by the same group, was found to be legal, although ‘excessive force was used,’ which is, I suppose, sometimes what happens when people die. Turkey was sharply criticized for its internal investigation of last convoy, while “Israel’s Turkel commission that investigated the events was professional, independent and unbiased.”
The Turks of last year, unlike the Greeks to date this year, did not attempt to prevent the convoy from sailing; therefore, found the UN report, the Turkish investigation was “politically influenced and its work was not professional or independent.” Turkey, perhaps because it is trying to reconcile differences with Israel, has pressured the UN to delay the public release the report. “The [UN] Palmer Committee also criticizes the IHH organization that organized the Gaza flotilla as well as its ties to the Turkish government, suggesting Turkey did not do enough to stop the flotilla.”
Based on testimony of the passengers, the committee concluded that Israeli naval commandos used excessive force. “Israel claimed the soldiers acted out of self defense, thereby justifying the use of force,” which is, of course, an interesting notion to attack a group of people and claim self-defense. The report’s final draft suggests “Israel is not asked to apologize to Turkey, but the report does recommend it expresses regret over the casualties.” The report “doesn’t ask Israel to pay compensation, but proposes Israel transfer money to a specially-created humanitarian fund.”
In the meantime, relations between Israel and Turkey are strained. “There is no agreement and no breakthrough on the horizon. Everything still depends on the (Turkish demand for an Israeli) apology. The report will be released soon and a compromise seems very unlikely.”
Even if you don’t suffer from Islamophobia you probably don’t want to be in Arizona when a Haboob arrives. A Haboob is an” intense sandstorm commonly observed in arid regions,” including the desert cities of Arizona, such as Yuma and Phoenix. Last night a haboob caused the FAA to stop at flights at Phoenix’s Sky Harbor Airport for about an hour and 15 minutes. At its peak, the storm left 10,000 customers without power.
The Dole Blog 