Make a bet

I’ve cited him before, and I’ll cite him again I’m sure.  Andrew Sullivan is a self-proclaimed conservative.  He voted for Bush at least once and for conservative candidates for decades before that.  And then he voted for Obama. And if you ask him, he’ll be voting anti-Tea Party, and anti-Party of No.  So he’s quite an interesting political commentator, which is what he has become.  For instance, his bets on the future (and keep in mind what I’ve just said about him being, for decades, a conservative):

The question for me is whether the FNC/RNC frenzy, combined with mere usual Democratic turnout, could tip the Senate too. And since that frenzy is based on rabid fantasies about what is actually happening in the world, the next question is whether that will then pierce the current far right bubble, or enable it to grow some more.

My bet, if I had to make one, is that the FNC/RNC will do extremely well, get even more wacky, overplay their hand, nominate Palin for president and then usher in a real and more solid Democratic majority with Obama empowered in ways he hasn’t been so far. Which is worse for conservatism – and the country – in the long run than constructive engagement with the president now.

But that’s a scenario far too far ahead to predict for sure. The economy is the wild card. If we really are entering an endless jobless recession, all bets are off. But the wilder the right gets, and as long as Obama doesn’t take the bait, his calm and reason will win the day in the end, especially if the economy recovers and the wars end.

It’s a guessing game to say how the economy will look in the future (why do you think the stock market is such a win-lose gambling game?), but I’d hazard a guess that Andrew hit the nail on the head about various possible political futures based on factors such as the next election and the economy.

I have one other thought; it is still my view that Obama is waiting until after the midterm elections of his second term to do everything radical or progressive. He will have nothing left to lose. No more elections, no more elections of majorities or minorities in the House and Senate. But it’s a risky game. He can’t do it if he doesn’t have large majorities.